From hydraulic experiments to socioeconomic polycrisis - understanding turbulence across physical and social systems
We live in a world that feels increasingly unpredictable. From sudden market crashes and political upheavals to the alarming acceleration of climate change, our daily news feeds reverberate with disruptions that seem both interconnected and inexplicable. This state of constant fluctuation isn't just happening around us—it's within us, affecting our workplaces, our communities, and our very sense of security.
What if these seemingly disconnected crises shared a common underlying pattern? Scientists across disciplines are converging on a powerful concept that explains both the social and physical phenomena of our time: global turbulence. Once confined to the realms of physics and engineering, turbulence has emerged as a potent metaphor and analytical framework for understanding the complex, chaotic dynamics shaping our world.
This article explores how scientists are studying turbulence in all its forms—from the flow of water through dams to the destabilizing forces in our global economy—and what these investigations reveal about navigating our turbulent future.
At its simplest, turbulence represents a state of fluid flow characterized by chaotic, unpredictable changes in pressure and velocity. Imagine a smoothly flowing river (a "laminar" flow) suddenly encountering obstacles that create swirling, unpredictable eddies (a "turbulent" flow). This transition from order to disorder occurs in all fluids, from air and water to industrial chemicals flowing through pipes.
Smooth, predictable fluid motion with parallel layers that don't mix. Characterized by low velocity and high viscosity.
Chaotic, irregular fluid motion with mixing between layers. Characterized by high velocity and low viscosity.
The scientific study of turbulence has traditionally focused on these physical manifestations. Engineers spend careers designing aircraft wings to minimize atmospheric turbulence and developing pipe systems that manage turbulent flows in chemical plants. The Blasius equation, foundational to fluid dynamics, originally described laminar flow in boundary layers, but recent scientific work has expanded it to model turbulent flows as well 2 . This mathematical advancement allows researchers to predict how turbulence develops and behaves under specific conditions, with applications ranging from aerospace engineering to climate modeling.
What makes turbulence particularly fascinating—and frustrating—for scientists is its fundamental nature. As the Center for Turbulence Research at Stanford University notes, this prevalence in physical systems finds a striking parallel in human social systems, where stability appears to be the exception rather than the norm.
The concept of turbulence has transcended its physical origins to become a powerful interdisciplinary framework. Researchers now recognize that turbulence follows recognizable patterns across natural and social domains. In medicine, we find "heart rhythm turbulence" and "circulatory system turbulence"; in economics, "market turbulence"; and in sociology, "turbulent societies" 1 . What connects these diverse manifestations is their shared foundation in complex, interdependent systems undergoing rapid change.
To understand how scientists study turbulence in practice, let's examine a recent hydraulic engineering experiment that investigates turbulence properties in a controlled setting. Researchers at Incheon National University conducted a sophisticated investigation into how different gate openings affect flow velocity and turbulence distributions at the mouth of a rising sector gate—a type of movable weir gate used in rivers for flood control and water management 7 .
The researchers employed a Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) system, a sophisticated optical measurement technique that allows them to capture detailed flow patterns across an entire area rather than just at single points.
The experiment was conducted with two specific gate-opening angles (30 and 45 degrees) under various flow conditions, allowing scientists to systematically investigate how these changes affected turbulence development.
The key measurements focused on flow velocity and turbulent kinetic energy—a crucial metric that quantifies the intensity of turbulence by measuring the energy contained within the fluctuating velocity components of the flow.
| Quantity | Symbol | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Turbulent Kinetic Energy | k | Measures intensity of turbulent motion |
| Depth-Averaged Turbulent Kinetic Energy | k₀ | Represents total turbulence energy available |
| Relative Turbulence Intensity | r₀ | Standardized measure for comparison |
The results revealed fascinating patterns that illustrate fundamental principles of turbulence. Most notably, the researchers found that turbulence properties in the upstream part of the gate mouth were more than twice those in the downstream part 7 . This dramatic difference occurred in the region where the flow regime changes rapidly between upstream and downstream regions—precisely the kind of transitional zone where turbulence typically develops.
Perhaps the most striking finding concerned how the depth-averaged relative turbulence intensity decreased by nearly half as the gate opening increased from 30 to 45 degrees 7 . The lowest turbulence values were observed right at the gate mouth, followed by a significant increase further downstream. This pattern provides important insights into how constrictions generate turbulence and how adjusting those constrictions can modulate turbulent effects.
These hydraulic findings parallel phenomena in social turbulence. Just as the gate opening affected turbulence development in the physical experiment, "openings" or flexibility in social systems—such as adaptable policies, diverse economic platforms, and inclusive governance structures—appear to influence the intensity and impact of socioeconomic turbulence.
The investigation into turbulence, whether in physical or social systems, relies on a sophisticated collection of theoretical frameworks, experimental tools, and computational resources. These elements form the essential toolkit that enables researchers to decode chaotic systems across disciplines.
Across both physical and social domains, the integration of multiple approaches—theoretical modeling, empirical observation, and computational simulation—has proven essential to advancing our understanding of turbulence. Research centers like Stanford's Center for Turbulence Research (CTR) explicitly emphasize this integrated approach.
The scientific study of turbulence, from hydraulic engineering laboratories to global economic systems, reveals a fundamental truth: turbulence is not merely random chaos but a complex phenomenon with underlying patterns that can be understood, predicted, and even harnessed. The same principles that govern how water flows through a gate or air moves over an aircraft wing also offer insights into the behavior of markets, societies, and global systems undergoing rapid change.
What emerges from this interdisciplinary investigation is a dual reality. On one hand, turbulence appears to be an inevitable companion to rapid evolution, whether in physical systems experiencing accelerated flow or social systems undergoing transformative change. As one research paper notes, "Any crisis is always followed by development and vice versa; after a crisis comes development" 1 . This cyclical pattern between stability and disruption appears fundamental to complex systems of all kinds.
Yet the scientific evidence also suggests that the intensity and impact of turbulence can be modified through intelligent intervention. In hydraulic systems, adjusting gate openings can dramatically reduce turbulence intensity 7 . In social systems, building resilience capabilities and dynamic adaptive capacities can help organizations navigate market and technological turbulence 6 .
Chaos and order are not opposites but complementary forces in the evolution of complex systems.
The challenge lies in developing what researchers term "integrated modes of thinking" and "transdisciplinary approaches" to address the interconnected nature of turbulent phenomena 3 .
As we face a future of continuing rapid change, the scientific approach to global turbulence offers both sober assessments and hopeful prospects. The problems we confront are indeed formidable—from the "multidimensional polycrisis" of geopolitical instability, economic inequality, and environmental degradation to the daily challenges of managing organizations in unpredictably shifting landscapes 3 .
The ultimate insight from turbulence research may be that chaos and order are not opposites but complementary forces in the evolution of complex systems. By studying how turbulence functions across domains—from the flow of water to the flow of global information—we develop not just specific solutions but a more nuanced capacity to thrive amid uncertainty. In the words of the turbulence researchers, what's needed is the development of "integrated modes of thinking" to address interconnected challenges 3 —precisely the approach that the scientific study of turbulence itself embodies.
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Global Social Turbulence: The Age of Polycrisis
When social scientists describe our current era as one of "global turbulence," they're referring to more than just a collection of random crises. We are experiencing what experts term a "polycrisis"—a multidimensional global crisis where political, economic, technological, social, cultural, and environmental challenges intersect and amplify one another 3 .
This polycrisis manifests through rising levels of uncertainty, doubt, distrust, and insecurity across societies worldwide. The symptoms of this social turbulence are visible everywhere. Political polarization, social unrest, extremism, violence, and geopolitical instability all reflect deeper underlying structural causes rather than merely representing isolated events 3 .
The sense of a shared vision and universal values that provided a platform for international collaboration since the end of the Second World War is being challenged by a retreat to national self-interest, fracturing both domestic priorities and international relationships.
100-fold
Global economic growth multiplication in the last 200 years 3
Dimensions of Environmental Turbulence in Social Systems
Global Population Growth Acceleration
Human population growth has accelerated dramatically, contributing to social system turbulence 3
Research into this phenomenon reveals that our turbulent times have deep, interconnected roots. The extraordinary acceleration of global social evolution has created enabling conditions for system-wide instability. Consider that it took Homo sapiens nearly 200 millennia to reach a population of 10 million, another 10 millennia to reach 100 million, 18 centuries to raise it to one billion, and only two centuries to reach eight billion 3 .
This unprecedented speed and scale of change generates what scientists call "environmental turbulence," which businesses and organizations must navigate to survive. Studies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have identified two key dimensions of this turbulence: market turbulence (rapid changes in customer preferences and demands) and technological turbulence (the rate of technological change obsolescing current technologies) 6 . Under high levels of such turbulence, even resilient organizations struggle to maintain sustainable performance.